Player Spotlight: Courtland Sutton

Courtland Sutton has WR1 upside with elite talent on a potentially explosive Broncos offense

What makes Courtland Sutton so intriguing for me is his unique combination of a strong floor and elite upside. Sutton recorded 72 catches for over 1,100 yards and 6 touchdowns, good for 19th among receivers. Add that to the fact that this came with a combination of Joe Flacco, Brandon Allen, a rookie Drew Lock and it’s evident that there is very little room for Sutton to drop off from where he finished last year. Sutton’s physical tools and skill are undeniable, as his 6’4 frame and strong hands make him a weapon across the field and in the end zone. However, what makes me most excited about Sutton is his potential number 1 role in an elite offense in 2020.

Before I get any more into Sutton, I’m just going to go over the moves the Broncos made on offense this year. They added receivers Jerry Jeudy, one of the cleanest route runners and overall receivers you will see, and KJ Hamler, a Tyreek Hill type burner who can open up the field with the deep threat he poses. They also added Melvin Gordon, a star running back who would slide in with Phillip Linsday to form one of the top backfield groups in the NFL. Lastly, they made additions to their offensive line. While I wouldn’t expect the line to dominate, it’s safe to assume it won’t be the liability it’s been in the past.

Now, when considering that the Broncos already have Sutton, receiving tight end Noah Fant, and DaeSean Hamilton, it’s easy to jump to the conclusion that there are too many weapons in that offense to trust any one player as a high end fantasy asset. However, I always think the opposite. I target players on elite, crowded offenses because of one simple reason: there will always be points to go around. Drew Lock is a rising star QB with a whole year to mesh with his receivers and the offense has all the tools to make the jump to elite. While Jeudy, Hamler, Fant, and Hamilton are great, they are nowhere near the level of Courtland Sutton right now. There is absolutely no reason to believe that Sutton doesn’t hit or exceed his 124 targets from last year and with so many weapons, there is a strong chance that Sutton will have more opportunity to add value to each touch.

The one glaring issue with Sutton is his extremely low catch percentage, which at 58.1% put him at 159th in the league. However, with Drew Lock given a full offseason to build a connection with Sutton, I can realistically see that number rise to around 65%. Just to take a look at Sutton’s upside, I can definitely see him demand 10 targets a game as the elite number 1 receiver on that team. Stretch a 65% catch percentage with 10 targets a game and his 15.4 YPC and you get 104 catches for over 1600 yards. With his insane jump ball abilities and lowered attention in the redzone, he also has league-leading touchdown potential. Give me that upside at a 4-5th round ADP all day long.