Player Spotlight: Nick Chubb

Nick Chubb is one of the most polarizing high-end players in this year's draft

When you talk about a polarizing, highly drafted player, I don’t think too many names come above Nick Chubb. I mean, from basically any advanced metric or watching the dude play, it’s obvious that Chubb is insanely talented. I’m talking top-3 rushing back in the league talented. But there is one thing that stands in his path to fantasy superstardom and that’s the former superstar Kareem Hunt. I’ll talk about Hunt a little later, but the bottom line with Chubb is that he is one of the highest ceiling, lowest floor guys in the first round.

From a talent perspective, Chubb is right there with Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey. Let me give you a list of advanced stats that he’s top 10 in the league in: yards per carry (2nd), breakaway runs (1st), evaded tackles (2nd), red zone touches (5th), goal line carries (3rd), yards created (2nd), breakaway run rate (10th), juke rate (10th). Add that to his 2nd place finish in rushing yards, 3rd in rushing attempts, and 9th in rushing TDs, and you have a guy who is elite as a rusher. The receiving game is another story altogether though, as Chubb only picked up 36 catches, most of which came before Hunt came back. However, with the insane combination of talent and opportunity, there is no denying that Chubb is a future superstar.

However, Kareem Hunt is still there and still possesses the talent that got him nearly 1,800 scrimmage yards and 11 scrimmage touchdowns only 2 years ago. Add that to the fact that Nick Chubb had an astonishing 5.9 PPR PPG less when Kareem Hunt was active and you have a major reason for concern. However, there are a couple of reasons I don’t view Kareem Hunt’s presence as too threatening to Nick Chubb and particularly his upside. Aside from the obvious point that Chubb is statistically way more talented than Hunt, their play styles are vastly different. Looking back last year, Chubb dominated the rushing category, grabbing 298 carries (18.6/game) compared to Hunt’s 47 rushes (5.9/game). That rushing share alone gives Chubb a high floor, even in the low chance that Hunt’s rushing volume increases.

While the consensus is that Chubb is an elite runner and you’ll be hard pressed to find someone who doesn’t think that he won’t finish in the top 5 among running backs if you only counted rushing statistics. However, with running backs’ involvement in the passing game growing by year, many people are concerned about Chubb’s lack of volume in the passing game. 15 catches over the last 8 weeks compared to 24 over the first 8 proves the point that his volume greatly diminished with Hunt’s return. I can see why this is an area of concern, but I strongly believe that the Browns will emerge into an elite offense this year. Chubb might not become a CMC, 10 catch a game guy, but with Hunt moving more to a receiver role and Chubb taking near-full RB duties on a run-heavy team, I see massive RB1 upside.

For the last part of this article, I’m going to make some statistical floor, ceiling predictions to show why Chubb is so polarizing. For the floor, let’s consider that the Browns continue to be a mediocre offense, but with the arrival of Kevin Stefanski, the team gives out 400 total carries. Worst case scenario, the rushing numbers split 60-40 for Chubb and his average YPC stays elite, but drops to around 4.2. That’s right around 1000 yards. Stretch out his receiving numbers when Hunt started playing for 30 catches for around 250 yards and give him 8 scrimmage touchdowns. In my opinion, that’s a reasonable floor for him, but equates to 178 half-PPR points, or a RB20 finish last year. Not bad, but not what you want in a first round pick. However, let’s take a closer look at his ceiling. Now let’s say that with Stefanski in town, the Browns rush it 450 times, which would have been 3rd last year. Let’s also say that Chubb takes 75% of the total rushing attempts for 340 rushes, which is reasonable for an elite runner for Chubb. If he keeps at his career 5.1 YPC, that’s almost 1750 rushing yards. I can realistically see him grab 50 balls in an improved Browns offense, a bolstered offensive line, and Hunt moving to more of a receiving back role. 400 yards is a reasonable yardage, but with an offensive explosion with Chubb leading the way, there is 100% reason to believe that he can hit paydirt 16 times next season, or once a game on average. That’s a pretty conservative ceiling, but equates to around 350 half-PPR points, or a number 1 finish in 6 out of the last 10 years. With his ADP around 12, Nick Chubb is the ultimate gamble.