Fantasy Prep 2019

Football season is approaching fast and its basically the only thing that compensates for school starting! While nobody can tell us what's going to happen next season, we can make predictions based on what we do know. I've done my homework for this season and in this post, I'm going to write about what I look for in players and a few guys I like at each position.

What I look for in each position

Patrick Mahomes and his magic arm will score plenty of fantasy points. But you can get more *fantasy* valuable (he's the real life MVP for a reason) players at his hefty ADP

Quarterback - A quarterback is the single most important position in sports. Players like Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Russell Wilson, to name a few, can raise a team to a whole new level on their own and despite the value of a stud running back, receiver, or defensive end, nothing can compensate for an elite QB. That is the opposite in fantasy football this year. You've probably read in one place or the other, but this year is super deep for the position. Yes, I want Patrick Mahomes more than most, but I'm not taking him over a Marlon Mack or even Mike Evans, where he's going based on ADP. In quarterback, I'm looking for a later round guy in the QB 8-12 range who will give me a consistent floor with high upside. I'm not saying don't take them, but instead of taking a guy like Deshaun Watson or Aaron Rodgers, player who are virtual locks produce big seasons, give me Carson Wentz or Jameis Winston, guys who may under perform, but also have the weapons to jump into the top tier.

Saquon Barkley's insane talent and opportunity share more than make up for the Giants' bad offense and offensive line

Running Back - Running backs are the driving force to any fantasy team. Yes, a wide receiver can win you a week and yes, having an elite tight end is an invaluable asset, but good running backs consistently churn out points on a weekly basis. A running back's value also varies the most based on format. If you are playing in a standard league (no points for reception) target guys who get carries. Similar to targets for a receiver, which I will explain later, a players' value is largely based on opportunity. Also, look for players on good offenses, as those running backs tend to score more touchdowns. Yes, there are exceptions. The giants suck, but Saquon Barkley is the consensus number 1 pick. That's because he's insanely talented. Alvin Kamara doesn't get a lot of carries, but the Saints are one of the best offenses in the league and he gets crazy amounts of touchdowns and catches. This is a bit different in 0.5 and 1.0 PPR leagues because running backs who catch the ball have extra value. This gives value to guys like Duke Johnson and extra value to guys like Christian McCaffrey because while they are not top tier runners, they make up for it as receivers with the all important targets. Just to sum it up, in running backs, look for opportunity and offense. Those guys are the best bets to succeed. I'm talking guys like Nick Chubb, who will get all the work he can handle, Josh Jacobs, who will step into a workhorse role, and Marlon Mack, who will have a key role on an explosive offense.

The glue hands help, but Deandre Hopkins's huge target count make him a fantasy superstar

Wide Receiver - While a wide receivers' ranking won't change as much based on format, their value compared to a running back sure will. But when looking for receivers, look for targets. Not catches. Not yards. Targets. Catches and yards are more talent based, yes, but they are very volatile and can change year to year. Targets, however, is the best number to predict a players' future success. Here's the top 5 receivers from last year based on targets: Antonio Brown, Davante Adams, Julio Jones, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Deandre Hopkins. Wait a second. Every one of those guys is an elite receiver. I'm not as big on receivers as most people, mostly due to their inconsistency outside the true elites, but with receivers, go for upside more than any other position. Mid and low range receivers are super hit or miss, so take a few boring ones but shoot your shot on others. I'm talking guys projected good target shares with big play abilities like Robby Anderson and Josh Gordon and target hogs like Julian Edelman and Robert Woods.

Travis Kelce is in a tier on his own at tight end, but value can be found later in the draft

Tight Ends - Same rules as receivers apply to tight ends. The only difference with this position, though, is that the position dries out very quickly. A quick look at tight end stats may be discouraging, as a good tight end will score vastly fewer points than a good wide receiver or running back, but the difference between a top 3 and a top 15 tight end is massive. Having a solid tight end is an asset to any team, but be sure to not overspend. Don't be afraid to spend a third on studs George Kittle and Zach Ertz and even an early second for superstar Travis Kelce, but if you're looking for value at the position, target targets! Guys on teams with losses at the wide receiver position like Evan Engram and Vance McDonald will cut up a big target share and can return big fantasy value. Later round guys like Jordan Reed and Mark Andrews offer a low floor but also have big upside. Don't get too pretty though and try to fill the position in the top half rounds.

Kicker - Don't draft a kicker early. Get a kicker on good teams. Simple as that.

Defense - This is always a tough one to guess. Every year, a large portions of top defenses flop. In my opinion and in the opinions of a lot of experts, streaming good defenses against bad teams is often the way to go.