The Case For WR2

Special thanks to guest writers Jeevan Kirkland (writing for Deandre Hopkins) and Jordan Barkin (writing for Chris Godwin)

Julio Jones dominates year after year - why should 2020 be any different?

Julio Jones (Atlanta Falcons)

I’m not going to argue that Julio Jones has the most upside this year, because the truth is, he probably doesn’t. Hopkins can have a monster year with a better overall offense and a future superstar in Kyler Murray at quarterback. Chris Godwin had a monster year with Jameis Winston and as the presumptive slot receiver for Tom Brady, there is plenty of upside there. But on the flip side, the bust potential for both of those guys is way too high to pass on Julio Jones. I mean, Julio literally has no bust potential outside of injury. Julio has been so dominant for so long that people basically forget how good he is year after year after year. From 2013-2019, he has never averaged less than 90 yards per game and 5.5 receptions per game. Take his lowest yards per game in that 7 year span, lowest receptions per game in that span, stretch it out over 16 games, give him 4 touchdowns (2.3 less than his career average) and what do you get? Over 212 half ppr points and a WR7 finish out of the 2019 receivers (he finished as the WR3 last year).

Now, I know that most people don’t question Julio’s receptions and yardage, and rightfully so. However, the 2 biggest knocks on Julio are his health and touchdowns. Every week, it seems that Julio is questionable with a strained hamstring or foot injury, but in reality, Julio has missed 4 games in the last 6 years. As for touchdowns, Julio averages 6.3 touchdowns a year. While that obviously isn’t amazing for an athletic freak of a receiver with an unquestioned number 1 role on the offense, it’s more than enough to solidify him in the high WR1 range when combining it with a near surefire 90 catch, 1400 yard season.

The last reason why I love Julio this year is because of the new look Falcons offense. They have invested heavily in their offensive line. Matt Ryan is a former MVP who people have basically forgotten about, even though he’s averaged around 4,500 yards and 27 touchdowns a year since then. The Falcons also brought in superstar back Todd Gurley, who, if healthy, can add a whole new dimension to the offense and take pressure off Julio especially in the end zone. At this point with so many years of consistent domination, Julio is as close as you can get to a fantasy lock (even more of a lock than Michael Thomas in my opinion). Combine that with Julio’s ridiculous athleticism and the chance for an even more explosive offense, and you have another top-5 lock season with more upside than you might expect. Slot Julio as the WR2 behind Michael Thomas and don’t be surprised if he finishes as the WR1.

Deandre Hopkins enters a loaded Cardinals air attack and has ridiculous upside.

DeAndre Hopkins (Arizona Cardinals)

The case for DeAndre Hopkins being the best wide receiver and fantasy option out of the three on this list is quite simple. Hopkins has been at the top of his game over the last three seasons and is entering the prime of his career at the age of 28. Hopkins has recorded three straight First Team All-Pro seasons as well as three straight pro bowls. He has been the only player over that span to finish in the top 5 amongst fantasy receivers in a PPR format. Nuk is a player that screams consistency and has missed only two games over that span and his whole career for that matter. Over the last three years he has been able to stay healthy and post an average of 19.8 ppr fantasy points per game, the best out of any receiver.

While Hopkins did have a little bit of a dip in production last season he still was able to post 104 catches, 1165 yards, and seven touchdowns. This allowed for him to still be a strong wide receiver one and finish as the fifth best ppr wide receiver. His numbers are likely to go up as his scenery is changing. DeAndre Hopkins is now a member of the Arizona Cardinals and this may be the best thing that has ever happened to his career. He is joining a talented, potent offense that will be predicated on slinging the ball. He is joining Kliff Klingsbury’s pass first offense which differs from Houston’s focus on running the ball. While two two teams’ run-pass ratios were similar last season (both around 56%) the Cardinals still passed the ball 20 more times than the Texans. This number will likely go up now that the Cardinals have a true wide receiver one that can consistently win matchups.

Since Klingsbury’s head coaching career started at Texas Tech he has conducted an offense that is predicated on having big play quarterbacks and receivers. Arizona finally has that as Kyler Murray, the rookie of the year, looks to improve and he finally has some weapons to do that. Adding Hopkins to Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald will allow this offense to do what it is made to do. In addition, they will probably have to pass very often as they are still the worst team, for now, in one of the hardest divisions in football so they will likely be playing from behind often. All of this is great news for Hopkins as he will look to regain his place as the best fantasy wide receiver this upcoming season. His upside is tremendous with Arizona’s offensive capability and his floor is still a top 5 wide receiver due to his consistency over the past three seasons.

Chris Godwin put up great numbers last year and now has the GOAT throwing to him.

Chris Godwin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

The difference between the skill of Chris Godwin and both Julio Jones and Deandre Hopkins is immense, but for fantasy football, they all have a legitimate argument for being the overall WR 2, behind Michael Thomas. I will be laying the case for the most interesting player of the bunch in Godwin. Looking at the basic stats from the 2019 season, Godwin had the greatest season out of all of them with 86 Rec, 1333 Yards and 9 touchdowns, not to mention he had by far the worst QB out of the three in Jameis Winston. After two good but not great years in the league, Godwin exploded into being a top 10 receiver in the league but still second on his team to Mike Evans, which helps his fantasy value. Last season, Godwin was actually the second receiver in all formats, with Julio Jones and Deandre Hopkins also being in the top 5 for PPR rankings. I believe Godwin has a great chance to replicate the year he had last year and possibly be even better.

To begin, from a straight up football perspective, Mike Evans is undoubtedly the number 1 WR on the team, a true outside threat that will attract the defense’s best corner. Typically, a QB will target this player the most, but when you have as good of a complementary receiver on the team as Godwin, they both receive about an equal target share, but Godwin has a far worse corner on him. Godwin either lines up on the other side of the field, and while he isn’t a natural slot receiver, he can absolutely play there, and I believe with Tom Brady as his QB, Godwin will receive a lot of targets to the slot. Brady and Julian Edelman were a fantastic duo for many years in New England and it was clear that Brady loves targeting the slot. Of course, many years ago, Randy Moss had one of the most ridiculous seasons ever by a WR, but Evans is not Moss. And Brady isn’t the same QB as then. I don’t expect him to be constantly looking for a deep threat in Evans but rather look more to Godwin.

The Buccaneers do not have the best running backs in the game, with Ronald Jones II as their presumptive starter, and also drafting Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Raymond Calais in the latest draft, but they weren’t a run heavy team. Jameis Winston was a gunslinger who threw the ball up a lot and possibly inflated the stats of both Evans and Godwin, but I do not think Brady will hinder their stats as much as others believe. He’s more methodical than Winston, and will go through drives slower, and will certainly turn the ball over a lot less. He will likely throw the ball a lot, and without the turnovers, the Bucs should have many long drives.

With so many weapons to look for in the red zone, with Evans, Rob Gronkowski, OJ Howard, and Cameron Brate along with Godwin, he may see a slip in the touchdowns. Or maybe this team scores at such a high rate that everyone’s mouths can be fed. Either way, I fully expect Godwin to still have 7+ touchdowns on the year. As I believe he will be Brady’s favorite target, he could have a 2019 Michael Thomas like season, with a lot of targets and catches. He likely won’t have as statistically great of a year as Thomas but that is why he was easily the number 1 receiver last year. Compared to last season, I expect Godwin to have more catches and yards, and maybe some touchdown drop off. I could see Godwin having 100 catches, 1500 yards, and 8 touchdowns. It’s bold but the offense is led by arguably the greatest QB in NFL history and they will gain a lot of yards and points, and I think Godwin will benefit significantly from this. He was already the WR 2 last year, so an improvement on last season should solidify him as being at least the WR 2 this year too.